RIBAMOD NEWSLETTER No 5 - MAY 1998

River Basin Modelling, Management and Flood Mitigation: a Concerted Action funded by the European Commission

Report from Workshop 2, Wallingford, 26-27 February 1998

About 100 scientists and engineers involved in hydro-meteorology, and river management met at this workshop held at HR Wallingford (UK) at the end of February 1998. Over 30 keynote, contributed and poster papers were presented on the twin themes of the meeting. Dr Gerry Galloway from the US National Defense University broadened the view of the workshop from European to international flood mitigation. He described the response in the US to the major flood in the Mississippi basin of 1993 and the need to seek a sustainable pathway for future development of river basins. Issues raised at the workshop included the following.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding
Current assessments of the impact of climate change on flooding are far from certain since flooding and the natural hazard it poses arise from a complex interaction of physical, biological and human factors. These compound the uncertainties which are inherent in the choice and modelling of future climate scenarios. Analyses of historic and reconstructed flood records in major river basins have indicated linkage between major (natural) climate variation and the occurrence of severe floods. Many traditional methods of design flood estimation are limited by an implicit assumption on the stationarity of the climate and catchment response (over the period of hydrological record). Important questions are:

The meteorological driving forces which will influence flood risk include precipitation (type, intensity, volume, seasonality, etc), temperature and wind-speed. The potential impacts of climate change on flooding are complex with variations regionally and seasonally and other climate-induced changes (apart from floods) in flow regimes will also have important consequences in river basins. This implies that it is unlikely that a single universal impact model or methodology will be appropriate. The most appropriate type of hydrological model for climate impact assessment will depend upon the catchment and process scales and the impacts under investigation. Initial model investigations indicate that flood risks may be enhanced by changes in climate in several locations in Europe, whereas in other areas the flood risk may be reduced. The future variability of river flow may increase which will impact upon the frequency distribution of flood flows.

Research is needed on the coupling between hydrological and meteorological models on the response of vegetation cover to changes in climate and on the consequent changes in evapo-transpiration and runoff. Research is also needed to determine the most appropriate means of downscaling general circulation model (GCM) scenarios for use in flood risk assessments. Key factors to account for are:

Sustainable River Management
There is need to promote understanding of concepts relating to sustainable development both with the general public and with the professional community. The pathway for sustainable development and management of flood plains must be achievable (technically, economically, socially and politically). It will require a broad view of the interventions in the river catchment rather than local single-issue design or management. Traditionally planning has been restricted to a select few politicians and professionals but future planning will have to be open with an informed public. There is a different philosophical basis for the provision of structural and non-structural flood defence. Historically man has sought to tame the flood through the construction of embankments and reservoirs to provide security for occupants of the flood plains. However, non-structural measures such as flood plain zoning, development control, infiltration and flood warning recognise that flooding will still occur as part of the natural processes within the river basin. Difficult choices may arise in the management and protection of existing development and infrastructure on the river flood plain where this conflicts with the policy of sustainable flood plain management. In the area of flood management, return period is not a helpful way of communicating risk to the public at large; the use of the human lifetime might provide a more understandable basis of comparison.

River Restoration
Restoration of previously engineered and regulated rivers has been undertaken in many countries and such projects can form part of a sustainable development plan for the river basin. The objectives of river restoration are normally to create a wider diversity of eco-systems by bringing the river into a closer contact with its flood plain. The visual amenity of the watercourse may be improved and its natural function for flood storage and conveyance regained. However, it must be recognised that not all historic interventions in the natural river are reversible, the ecological clock cannot be put back with the river channel. Engineering intervention in a natural or artificial river has a broad and complex range of interacting impacts and these must be considered before restoration is undertaken. The morphodynamics of the river system are important in determining the plan-form, size and gradient of the channel and flood plain system. The sediments, water quality and aquatic ecology are all closely inter-linked and this needs to be represented in any simulation modelling. The habitats on the restored river will evolve in time with the natural succession of species but the original biodiversity of the site may not be regained, much remains to be learned from monitoring pilot schemes.

Final RIBAMOD Event

Expert Meeting on the Oder Flood in Summer 1998, Potsdam, 18 May 1998 (by invitation)
Convenor: Axel Bronstert, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. (Germany)

A newsletter will be prepared in June 1998 covering the discussions and conclusions of this event.

Proceedings of other RIBAMOD Events

The proceedings of the first two RIBAMOD events have now been published and may be obtained from the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, L-2985, LUXEMBOURG. The references are as follows:

Casale R, Havnø K & Samuels P (Eds), 1997, RIBAMOD River basin modelling management and flood mitigation Concerted Action, Proceedings of the first expert meeting, EUR 17456 EN, ISBN 92-827-9562-4

Casale R, Pedroli G B & Samuels P (Eds), 1998, RIBAMOD River basin modelling management and flood mitigation Concerted Action, Proceedings of the first workshop, EUR 18019 EN, ISBN 92-828-2002-5

The proceedings of the other three RIBAMOD events are all in preparation, with publication scheduled during 1998.

For information on RIBAMOD contact one of the Partners:

Paul Samuels, HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, OXON, OX10 8BA, UK
fax +44 1491 826352
e-mail pgs@hrwallingford.co.uk

Karsten Havnø, Danish Hydraulic Institute
fax +45 45 76 2567
e-mail kah@dhi.dk

Karel Heynert, Delft Hydraulics
fax +31 15 285 8582
e-mail Karel.Heynert@wldelft.nl

Evangelos Baltas, National Technical University of Athens
fax +30 1 772 2879
e-mail baltas@central.ntua.gr

Axel Bronstert, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
fax +49 331 288 2600
e-mail Axel.Bronstert@pik-potsdam.de

Marco Borga, University of Padua
fax +39 49 827 2686
e-mail mborga@ux1.unipd.it

Riccardo Casale
fax +32 2 296 3024
e-mail Riccardo.CASALE@DG12.cec.be

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